How to Build a Renewal Forecast Model That Actually Works

Accurately predicting your renewal forecast can make or break your quarter.
If you’re in Customer Success, Revenue Operations, or Channel Sales, you already know that guessing which customers will renew isn’t a strategy — it’s a risk.

This guide walks you through a step-by-step process to build a data-driven renewal forecast, so you can focus on closing renewals, not chasing answers.

A renewal forecast is a prediction of which customers will renew their contracts in a given time period — and at what value. A good renewal forecast helps you:

1. Prioritize accounts at risk
2. Accurately project recurring revenue
3. Focus efforts where they’ll have the biggest payoff
4. Align CS, sales, and finance on realistic targets

Whether you manage 50 or 5,000 contracts, building a consistent renewal forecast model is critical to achieving predictable growth.

1. Identify Key Signals for Renewal Behavior
   Start by defining the behaviors or patterns that influence renewals, both positively and negatively.

1. 🔼 Positive indicators:
   1. Product usage > 80%
   2. Active engagement with support or account managers
   3. High CSAT or NPS scores
   4. Executive sponsor confirmed
   5. History of timely payments and multi-year renewals

    

   🔼 Negative indicators:

   1. Low or declining usage
   2. Open/high-priority support tickets
   3. Key contact left the company
   4. Budget cuts or major internal changes
   5. Missed milestones or ROI concerns

2. Assign Scores to Each Signal
   Turn your insights into a renewal scoring model. Assign values to each indicator based on its impact.

   Signal	Score
   Usage> 80%	+3
   CSAT > 8	+2
   Key contact left	-4
   Ticket open > 7 days	-2
   Renewal value < previous year	+1
   Pricing objection flagged	-3

    

   Tip: You can score customers weekly or bi-weekly based on recent updates.

3. Calculate Overall Renewal Probability
   Once you’ve assigned scores, group customers into categories based on total points:

   Score Range	Renewal Forecast Category	Probability
   7 – 10	Strong renewal signal	80–100%
   4 – 6	Likely to renew	60–79%
   1 – 3	Moderate risk	40–59%
   ≤ 0	High churn risk	< 40%

    

   This simple model turns subjective renewal calls into a structured renewal forecast you can share across teams.

4. Use Historical Data to Refine Accuracy
   Use last quarter or last year’s renewal outcome data to:
   1. Identify trends in churned accounts
   2. Adjust scoring weights based on what really caused renewals or losses
   3. Improve the accuracy of your renewal probability model over time

    

   Pro tip: If your team logs reasons for churn or renewal, mine those notes to improve your forecast logic.

5. Automate Forecast Tracking
   You don’t need an expensive platform to forecast renewals. Here’s how to get started with tools:
   1. 🟢 Google Sheets: Build a dynamic scoring model with conditional formatting
   2. 🔄 Zapier or Make.com: Set up automated alerts for high-risk accounts
   3. 📩 Use CRM workflows to auto-update scores when data changes
   4. 📊 Weekly dashboard: Summarize your renewal forecast by segment or region
      OR
   5. Yagna iQ: Use the Yagna iQ’s Ai intelligent dashboard to identify the customers at risk and let the AI handle it for you

1. 🔒 Secure your recurring revenue: Without a solid renewal forecast, revenue is left to chance.
2. 🧠 Drive proactive engagement: Forecasting helps you prioritize touchpoints.
3. 📊 Strengthen executive reporting: Sales leaders and CFOs need renewal forecasts to project revenue accurately.
4. 🎯 Spot upsell and cross-sell timing: Customers showing strong renewal signals may be ripe for expansion.

Avoid these if you want a forecast you can trust:

1. 🚫 Relying only on gut feeling
2. 🚫 Ignoring usage and support data
3. 🚫 Treating all customers the same
4. 🚫 Not updating scores as situations evolve
5. 🚫 Using only ARR without behavioral insights

1. Yagna iQ – Automate renewal tracking, quoting, and forecasting
2. Excel/Google Sheets – Build a custom scoring model ()

Your renewal forecast should not be a report you scramble to prepare at quarter-end. It should be a living, evolving view of your recurring revenue engine. The earlier you identify risk, the faster you can save deals.

Start. Score. Learn. Refine. Automate.
That’s how accurate renewal forecasting becomes your unfair advantage.

Want to start forecasting renewals right now?

Tired of chasing down renewal info across email, Excel, and CRM?
Yagna iQ helps vendors, distributors, and partners automate everything from renewal forecasts to quote delivery.

📅 Book a free consultation to see how.